Primary Care Prognostic (PCP) Index of 11-Year Mortality Risk: Development and Validation of a Brief Prognostic Tool

Background: Healthcare providers use a life expectancy of at least 5 to 10 years in shared clinical decision-making with older adults about cancer screening, major surgeries, and disease prevention interventions. At present, few prognostic indexes predict long-term mortality beyond 10 years or are suited for use in primary care settings.

Objective: We developed and validated an 8-item multidimensional index predicting 11-year mortality for use in primary care.

Design, setting, and participants: Using data from the Singapore Longitudinal Ageing Studies (SLAS), we developed a Primary Care Prognostic (PCP) Index for predicting 11-year mortality risk in a development cohort (n = 1550) and validated it in a geographically different cohort (n = 928).

Main measures: The PCP Index was derived from eight indicators (body mass loss, weakness, slow gait, comorbidity, polypharmacy, IADL/BADL dependency, low albumin, low total cholesterol, out of 25 candidate indicators) using stepwise Cox proportional hazard models.

Key results: In the developmental cohort, the mortality hazard ratio increased by 53% per PCP point score increase, independent of age and sex. Across risk categories, absolute risks of mortality increased from 5% (score 0) to 67.9% (scores 7-9), with area under curve (AUC = 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.80)). The PCP Index also predicted mortality in the validation cohort, with AUC = 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.75).

Conclusions: The PCP Index using simple clinical assessments and point scoring is a potentially useful prognostic tool for predicting long-term mortality and is well suited for risk stratification and shared clinical decision-making with older adults in primary care.